Seismic Risk of Interdependent Lifeline System Using Fuzzy Reasoning

Abstract eng:
The main objective of this research is the estimation of lifeline’s seismic performance taking into account the multiple interdependencies between them. Their functionality is controlled by the vulnerability and the interconnectedness of lifeline elements for a given level of earthquake intensity. A systematic methodology is introduced to evaluate the associated losses of interacting lifeline elements for various strong motion intensities in an interactive relationship using uncertain additive linguistic preference relations. This approach which includes fuzzy reasoning can be directly applied to group decision making problems without loss of information. Group opinions are converted into the form of an “inoperability matrix” composed of elements representing the degree of corresponding impact. Finally, complex fragility curves of interdependent elements are produced using the “inoperability matrix” and the fragility curves of independent lifeline components. In this study the idea of cross impact analysis is employed for the evaluation of system interactions, whereas the impacted probability is formulated on the rigorous basis of probability theory and a systematic approach of risk analysis that is used for risk prevention. Finally, an illustrative numerical example is given to verify the developed approach. seismic risk, interdependency, lifelines, group decision making, linguistic preference

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