Dynamic Prediction and Earthquake Monitoring –One of Possible Approaches to Decrease the Risk for Oil and Gas Pipeline

Abstract eng:
During global industrial development of oil and gas fields in any seismoactive region designing of the main oil and gas pipeline is particularly important for the assessment seismic hazards in these regions. This is one of the important tasks during antiseismic construction and for environmental protection. It is possible to prevent and minimize possible losses by means of normative maps of seismic zonation designated for the Caspian basin and for oil and gas pipeline routes. At present these maps significantly underestimate the region's hazard and current construction works are being performed without the proper assessment of this region's seismicity. It is possible to solve problems on assessment of seismicity on new conceptual base by methods of dynamic earthquake prediction. Such a long-time dynamic earthquake prediction for the Caspian Sea - Eastern Turkey - Iran region was based on systemic seismogeodynamic approach to investigation of earthquake focal zones and on block model of seismokinematics of this region. The resulting map of dynamic regionalisation of the degree of seismic hazards up to year 2006 predicted not only place and strength of potential zones of the strongest earthquakes, but also the periods of increased probability of their occurrence within the source volume of the future mainshock. An early warning system of automatic telemetry have to be set up along with local and regional monitoring networks to predict short and medium term seismic hazard zonation the international earthquake monitoring and forecasting network. Economically, continuous operation of large pipelines is extremely important because of the huge energy content of the oil flow. The earthquake detection system presented here consists of accelerometers, which measure the immediate effects of the earthquake, and pipeline deformation sensors, which detect secondary impacts to the pipeline.

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