Scenario Based Ground Motion Simulations for Assessing the Seismic Hazard in Izmir, Turkey

Abstract eng:
Collision of the Arabian and African plates with Eurasia forces the Anatolian micro-plate to move west-wards. In the Aegean Sea, the Anatolian micro-plate rotates counter-clockwise and extends due to the subduction zone along the Hellenic Arc. This deformation results in reactivation of faults on the west coast of Turkey, which results in destructive earthquakes. İzmir, the third largest city in Turkey, has been destroyed by (large) earthquakes several times in recent history, latest in 1778. In this study, a deterministic seismic hazard analysis is conducted based on ground motion simulations for nine different earthquake rupture scenarios for recognized faults in the area surrounding İzmir. The method adopted is a hybrid broad-band ground motion simulation technique, which has previously been validated. The earthquake scenarios are based on existing knowledge of source parameters, local as well as regional. Among the various faults surrounding İzmir, the largest peak ground motions are associated with two faults, the İzmir fault (normal) which lies underneath the city and the Tuzla fault (strike-slip) which lies southwest of the city. The results indicate that a rupture on the 42 kilometer long İzmir fault can produce ground acceleration as high as 0.3 g on bedrock level in the center of İzmir. Considering the site effect potential in the area, this value needs to be treated as the lower threshold. The simulation results indicate that the historic events that have caused severe destruction in İzmir most likely have occurred on either the İzmir or the Tuzla faults. Furthermore the attenuation of the simulated ground motions agrees well with empirical relations as far as peak ground accelerations are concerned.

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