Flow-Based Reliability Assessment of Infrastructure Systems

Abstract eng:
The Reliability assessment of lifelines subjected to external hazards is critical to protect the functionality and quality of utility services in contemporaneous society. This paper introduces two performance metrics to assess service reliability of systems. Service Reduction (SR), and Weighted Service Reduction (WSR) are proposed to study the potential of networked systems to meet required demands when they are subjected to external events such as earthquake hazards. These metrics provide flow-based reliability estimates of network performance that go beyond traditional connectivity-based system reliability methods. Using Monte Carlo simulation and flow optimization algorithms, probabilistic fragility curves for a practical networked system in Memphis, Tennessee, USA are generated. Comparison of trends in the predicted behavior of the testbed system under connectivity and flow-based functionality performance measures highlight the adequacy of the new metrics to capture quality of service at the customer level. In fact, results from WSR reveal that it is possible to maintain adequate levels of service for higher levels of seismic intensity if a targeted flow assignment strategy is implemented. The proposed fragility curves of infrastructure system’s service reduction can be used for decision making processes involving pre-disaster maintenance activities and post-event interventions. Flowbased fragility curves can also be employed as tools for the assessment of retrofitting actions by comparing network reliability predictions before and after the implementation of strategic topological and structural enhancements.

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