Re-Appraisal of Tsunami Hazard in the North Atlantic Ocean: A Case Study for Iceland

Abstract eng:
Iceland lies in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean as a superstructural part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the boundary between the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates. Towards the south the coast is exposed to significant tsunami hazard, according to some recent studies. The objective of the present paper is to review and reassess this potential hazard and put it into context with other earthquake-induced threats on the island. Most tsunamis are generated by shallow earthquakes in subduction zones. The only subduction zones around the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean are the Puerto Rico Trench and the Antilles Subduction Zone around the eastern Caribbean. Earthquake generated tsunamis have hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands several times in recorded history, most recently in 1918. However, by far the most noteworthy Atlantic tsunami was generated by the great Lisbon earthquake of 1 November 1755, with a magnitude in the order of 9 it left Lisbon in ruins and damage was reported as far north as Ireland. According to some estimates the waves reached the south coast of Iceland. In addition, landslide and glacial flood generated tsunamis are judged to be a threat to Iceland. The tsunami hazard on the south coast of Iceland is quantified in terms of hazard curves utilising numerical modelling and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The run-up heights are dealt with emphasising the effects of the coastal geometry and the shape of the continental shelf. Potential tsunami induced damage is addressed and the villages and coastal infrastructures under threat identified. The main finding is that the tsunami hazard in Iceland is quantified as moderate, which appears to be in line with historic recordings. Furthermore, we find that some of the recent studies may have overestimated the hazard.

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