Comprehensive Earthquake Hazard Assessment for Marmara Region, Turkey

Abstract eng:
A new generation of earthquake hazard maps for the Marmara Region were prepared using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models to address to the needs of non-linear structural analysis, displacement based design and the design of long-period structures. Two different seismogenic models, based on alternative fault segmentation of the North Anatolian Fault and the associated characteristic earthquake rates were considered. In addition to characteristic earthquakes, probabilities for multi-fault ruptures (cascade events) were also considered. Assuming normal distribution of interarrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the mean recurrence time, covariance, time since last earthquake parameters were developed for each segment and the conditional probability for each fault segment was calculated. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined with Gutenberg-Richter type recurrence relationship. Attenuation functions used are based on empirical regressions of world-wide (NGA - Next Generation Attenuation Relationships) and the “European” strong-motion data. To partly account for the epistemic uncertainties a logic tree formulation is used where the alternate source models and the attenuation relationships with appropriate weights on each logic tree branch were utilized. Earthquake hazard is quantified in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and the spectral accelerations for the periods of 0.2, 1.0, 2.0 and 4s, and spectral displacement for the period of 6, 8 and 10s on NEHRP B/C boundary-type reference ground condition for 50%, 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedence in 50 years. Furthermore the probabilistic assessment of the corner period to commensurate with these probabilities will also be provided for the determination of the displacement spectrum. The maps for spectral acceleration at 0.2,

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