Modular System for Seismic Risk Analysis Considering Uncertainties of Basic Input Parameters

Abstract eng:
For the study area of Central Europe, an intensity-oriented damage and loss prediction model is developed and being adapted to regional seismic risk. The procedures implemented in the model are structured in a modular system, and therefore in a transparent way. The paper refers to the modification of the tools of risk analysis to account for the uncertainties and the scatter of basic input parameters. Results are presented for the strongest earthquake in Central Europe over the last 50 years, the September 03, 1978 Albstadt (Germany) earthquake (ML = 5.7; IEMS = 7.5). The evaluation of the existing building stock and its vulnerability is considered in more detail. The identification of the predominant building types, the assignment of their most likely or probable vulnerability classes and the formulation of correlations between these classes and the distribution of damage grades are regarded as the innovative key elements of the whole intensity-based procedure. Damage scenarios are related to the recent earthquake comparing the hypothetically predicted and the observed shaking effect. Damage is given in terms of fractiles replacing the commonly used mean damage grade.

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