A Study on the Uncertainties in Earthquake Time-Dependent Probabilities in Japan

Abstract eng:
In 2005, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), in Japan, released a comprehensive seismic hazard model.. The model provides detailed information on the long term magnitude rate distribution of all subduction zones and regional crustal faults. For a number of seismic sources, the model estimates time-dependent rupture probabilities with strong implications on hazard and loss analysis. In general, the results of time-dependent rupture probability analysis depend strongly on the mean and aperiodicity values of the assumed recurrence density distributions. Often, there are large uncertainties in estimating these parameters due to the fact that data on the occurrences of large historic earthquakes on subduction zones and crustal faults are limited. It is important to account for these uncertainties and evaluate their impact on the results of the time-dependent analysis. It is the objective of this study to formulate and evaluate the effects of parametric and model uncertainty on the results of the renewal time-dependent rupture models in Japan. The results provide insight on the importance, and the scale, of such uncertainty on regional loss distributions.

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