Social Impacts of Incorrect Decision from Earthquake Forecasting

Abstract eng:
Earthquake is the top in all of nature disasters. It can bring a series of social or psychological or mentality and economic heavy impacts. Human being tries to seek a way for earthquake forecasting. On present situation of research, earthquake forecasting just likes a sword that has a double side blade. Successful earthquake forecasting can bring a positive effect. However, false earthquake forecasting or correct earthquake forecasting but a wrong decision can bring a negative effect. Successful earthquake forecasting is our target that we don’t need to discuss. False earthquake forecasting attributes to the development of science, which also don’t need to discuss on this paper. Here, we focus on discussion of negative effect by correct earthquake forecasting but a wrong decision. And how can we reduce negative effect by incorrect decision from earthquake forecasting. In this paper, we give an analysis of case about negative effect by correct earthquake forecasting but a wrong decision. That is earthquake panic event (meanwhile, pollution of Songhua River, flu of birds and beasts) in Harbin, Nov, 2005. One million citizens of Harbin escape. We find the key of the case. (1) Unprofessional director and professional researcher. (2)Director makes arbitrary decisions. (3) Frail psychological or mentality of the public need improve and spread earthquake knowledge and science. To solve those problems need to do: (1) GIS dealing with calm down the public; (2) Monitoring flow focus point of Internet information and frequently key word;(3)Construction of modernizations decision making system.

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