Development of Tsunami Refuge Petri-Net Simulation System Utilizable in Independence Disaster Prevention Organization

Abstract eng:
A lot of lives were lost in the tsunami following the Sumatra earthquake on December 26, 2004. Moreover, many big earthquakes and tsunami have occurred, and caused serious damage also in Japan in the past. The Nankai earthquake has regularly occurred at intervals of between 100 and 150 years. It is predicted that the next Nankai earthquake will occur with a probability of about 50% within the next 30 years. The best method for protecting human life against tsunami is to smoothly evacuate inhabitants to safe places until after a tsunami has passed. It is necessary to always heighten inhabitant's awareness of tsunami damage and to practice emergency evacuation drills with all inhabitants. However, at present it is difficult to raise awareness because tsunami damage can’t be imagined easily. In this study, we developed a practical tsunami refuge Petri-net simulation system for independent disaster prevention organizations as a tool to heighten consciousness of potential tsunami damage. In this system, walking ability of each inhabitant, road blockage due to collapse of building and display function of refuge situation are considered. Simulations of evacuation behavior of inhabitants were carried out based on Petri-net. From the results of this study, it was found that the simulation system developed by the authors is an effective tool for inhabitants to become more aware of tsunami prevention in their region. Our method can be used both positively and practically for education and training in tsunami refuge of inhabitants.

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