Estimating the Uncertainty of Portfolio Losses Using New ShakeMap Footprint Uncertainty Maps

Abstract eng:
The uncertainty of economic or insured losses from large earthquakes can have many sources. The impact of the ground motion and loss estimation uncertainty to the portfolio loss uncertainty has been studied previously (Molas, et. al, 2006). Recently, the ground motion uncertainty corresponding to the ShakeMap ground motion maps have been estimated and published by CISN. ShakeMap ground motion estimates at or very close to recording stations have very small or zero uncertainty, while those farther away have uncertainty estimates that may exceed the standard deviations of the attenuation relationships, if the source parameters are not known. This study utilizes the spatially varying standard deviations of the ground motion estimates published with the ShakeMap. The 1994 Northridge earthquake in Southern California in the United States is presented as a case study. Monte Carlo simulations are applied around the median ground motion estimates based on a ShakeMap footprint. The simulation accounts for the inter- and intra-event components of the variance of the predicted ground motion. The intra-event component of the variance is considered to be spatial correlated to generate correlated random fields that realistically represent the ground motion distribution between sites. The results of this study can be used to gain a probabilistic perspective of the range of possible loss values for a scenario event, which is very useful for the management of risk.

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