Impact of Time Dependent Recurrence Modeling on Seismic Risk Assessment: California Case Study

Abstract eng:
Seismic risk assessments are based on a combination of seismic hazard, building vulnerability and exposure characteristics. This analysis examines how key assumptions within the seismic hazard component mainly the recurrence modeling can impact seismic risk. This study compares the risk results for California for an economic portfolio of single-family residential structures produced for a time-independent recurrence model and a model including time-dependent recurrence for key fault systems. The resulting analysis shows on a California wide portfolio that the annualized losses are impacted by >5% for residential structures when comparing short-term to long-term event rates. However, not surprisingly, there are very large localized increases (up to +45%) in regions where events are overdue (e.g., along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek System) and decreases where events have recently happened (e.g., along the San Andreas fault system that ruptured in 1906). This analysis give credence to the need for the inclusion in seismic risk assessments of time dependent recurrence particularly for insurance contracts which typically have short duration (e.g., 1-year).

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