Method for determining margins in multidisciplinary space systems design

Abstract eng:
A method for determining margins and mitigating uncertainty in multidisciplinary systems design is described. This method provides a rigorous foundation for determining design margins and mitigating uncertainty in any complex multidisciplinary engineering system. The method begins with identifying a set of tradable system-level parameters. The variables of the design are then classified and assigned appropriate probability density functions. An advanced Monte Carlo technique called Subset Simulation is used for efficiently propagating the effects of uncertainty. Additional tradable system-level parameters are characterized through the use of the Theory of Total Probability. The results of Subset Simulation are compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation. Margins are determined by combining the risk tolerance of the engineer with the simulation results. The method is applied to the conceptual design of an Earth-orbiting reconnaissance satellite, where the margins for a set of system-level parameters are determined. The study revealed important differences between the calculated design margins and the values typically assumed in conceptual design. It is also demonstrated how this approach can also be used to mitigate the effects of uncertainties at an early stage in the design process, which cannot be done through the traditional application of heuristic margins.

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