Critical Seismic Hazard Assessment by Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract eng:
In this paper, a probabilistic analysis in evaluating critical seismic hazard, which refers to the ground motion with zero exceedance probability, was developed. The essential of the new approach is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation. Demonstrated by a benchmark probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) example, the new approach can estimate the critical seismic hazard that does not exist in PSHA. In addition, the result shows that the ground motions at 0.1% and 1% exceedance probabilities are lower than those by PHSA, especially when a large duration, such as 25 years, is considered. This difference is possibly due to the questionable, unverified relationship used in PSHA for hazard computation. In addition, the hazard curves estimated by the new approach features two sudden changes in exceedance probability, referring to the probability drop and curvature change. The ground motion at the probability drop is associated with a less than 0.01% exceedance probability. Along with the critical motion, they can be used in earthquake resistant design with adequate conservatism.

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