Role of Systemic Risk in Regional Ecological Long-Term Threats Analysis

Abstract eng:
Paper aimed to analysis of river and coastal ecosystem vulnerability toward rare events. Study area includes Southern part of Ukraine adjacent to Black Sea - Black Sea Lowland. For this area was calculated the risk of collapse of regional ecosystem. Analyzed emergency scenario describes critical degradation of regional ecosystem as the consequence of mutually-induced sequence of emergencies stimulated by anthropogenic activity. Scenario includes increasing of water temperature and nutrient concentration in offshore basins due to anthropogenic pollution, which leads to massive outgrowth of certain types of water vegetation. It could leads to degradation of water quality, significant mortality and/or massive migration of marine biota through decreasing of dissolved oxygen concentration and increasing of toxic substances concentration, significant transformations in coastal ecosystem, change of local landscapes bioproductivity, and capability to utilize the wastes. It will leads to additional degradation of offshore and onshore ecosystems, and minimize the recovering capabilities. This quick and considerable environmental degradation reflects on population morbidity, leads to increase the relevant risks. To obtain normalized spatial-temporal distribution of investigated parameters (disasters frequency, social-economic and climatic parameters) with rectified values of reliability the regularization algorithm was proposed. Analysis of regional meteorological observations allows to draw few important conclusions on long-term distribution of climatic parameters. Algae blooms observations were analyzed. Obtained results allow to understand observed distributions of algae blooms and trends of ecosystems bioproductivity. Distributions of blooms probabilities and most vulnerable time periods were determined. Distribution of different types of natural and technological disasters was analyzed. Results obtained allow to estimate mean probability of “trigger” pollution. Using proposed approach to integrated risk assessment the key parameters of scenario of ecological “chain” (“domino effect”) catastrophe were estimated. Relative input of uncontrolled distributed component (systemic risks) into systems security was assessed for described scenario.

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