Reliability Analysis of Shield Tunnel Segment Joints

Abstract eng:
More than 15 years of metro operation in Shanghai shows that longitudinal differential settlements of shield tunnel could occur in soft ground due to various factors. As a result, expansion of shield tunnel segment joint is often observed, which could potentially greatly endanger the safety of the metro system. The objective of this paper is to suggest a probabilistic method to assess the safety of joint considering the aleatory uncertainty. This paper consists of three parts. First, a 4th-order B-spline is employed fit the observed settlements based on which the curvature of the longitudinal settlement curve can be calculated (Fig. 1). Then, a probabilistic model for calculating the spraying among of a joint using the curvature of the settlement curve as an input is described based on the deterministic model suggested by Fan (2008). An interval Monte Carlo method is used to consider the uncertainties in the statistics of the basic random variables. Finally, a real example is used to verify the proposed method and to illustrate how the method suggested in this paper can be used for helping maintenance decision. The method suggested in this study can also provide useful information for waterproof design of shield tunnels in soft ground.

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